2022 Mortgage Loan Forecast January 18, 2022

Mortgage interest rates increased across all loan types last week as the Federal Reserve’s signaling of tighter policy ahead pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher. The 30-year fixed rate hit 3.52 percent, its highest level since March 2020 according to the MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Rates at these levels are quickly closing the door on refinance opportunities for many borrowers. Although refinance activity changed little over the week, applications remained at their lowest level in over a month, and conventional refinance applications were at their lowest level since January 2020,”

The housing market started 2022 on a strong note. Both conventional and government purchase applications showed increases, with FHA purchase applications increasing almost 9 percent, and VA applications increasing more than 5 percent. MBA expects solid growth in purchase activity this year, as demographic drivers, and the strong economy support housing demand. However, the strength in growth will be dependent on housing inventory growing more rapidly to meet demand.