It’s possible that mortgage rates could go down when the Federal Reserve (Fed) meets on December 9-10, 2025, but it’s far from guaranteed.
I’d estimate a moderate chance (but not high probability) that mortgage rates will decline somewhat around the December Fed meeting — assuming the Fed cuts and long-term yields fall. But a strong or substantial drop in mortgage rates seems unlikely without additional pressure (weak data, sharp yield declines, etc.).
If I had to put numbers: maybe mortgage rates go down by a small fraction (e.g., a few basis points to maybe ~½ percentage point) in the right scenario. If things go differently (inflation surprises, strong economy, rising yields), rates could even move sideways or upward.
